The Devil Has Come To Collect His Due

There was a time when a person would never even consider taking out a large marker in Vegas that they couldn't repay immediately. Something about valuing the use of their extremities, I suppose. But those days have passed, and now gamblers think of markers as some sort of interest-free loan to be repaid the next time they get a big score. So if Steve Wynn of Wynn Las Vegas wants his money, he has to do what every American does when he's unhappy about a situation. He's gonna sue your ass.

First, it was Charles Barkley and the $400k he owed the casino. Then it was Alonzo Mourning and a $50k outstanding debt. Both of those debts have since been repaid. Now it's been revealed that Joe Francis, founder of the Girls Gone Wild, owes the Wynn a whopping 2 million bucks.

So now in addition to tax evasion, drug possession, child abuse and prostitution charges, Francis can add a massive gambling debt to his list of problems. It's almost enough to think that the $29 million a year cash flow and years of years of filming (among other things) young naked bodies wasn't worth it. Ok, that might be a stretch.

Still, for all of his work bringing the "Girls Gone Wild," mindset to college girls across the nation, Joe Francis should be an American hero. But instead, he's just a douchebag. It's unfortunate. Guys like him give the rest of us who just want to see an 18 yr old chick flash her boobies (and maybe make out w/ another 18 yr old) a bad name. Maybe Steve Wynn could bring a vise out just for old times sake.

By the Time You Read This, I May Be Dead. Or Have Herpes

I'm rolling out to Vegas in about an hour, so unless I go broke in a hurry, there won't be any posts this weekend. I'm sure you will all be able to make the adjustment.

As for the games this weekend, I'm going to take a mixed position and tease the Packers at -1.5 and the Giants +14.5. As much as I hate ever having money riding on Eli Manning, I like the one-two punch that Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw give the Giants offense. Combine that with the sudden disappearance of Dallas's running game, and two touchdowns looks like a nice buffer. As for the other NFC game, Seattle would have lost at home to Washington if the Skins had someone under center who was better than Todd Collins. I'm going to go out on a limb and saying that Brett Favre is better than Todd Collins.

A more compelling wager for me is in college hoops where the #4 Washington State Cougars are seven point underdogs to #5 UCLA. The tipoff is scheduled for 11:30 am on Saturday morning. Remembering your own college experience: were you ever ready to do anything at 11:30 on Saturday, other than nurse a hangover? This game is going to be slow and ugly. Take the points.

It also turns out that this weekend coincides with the Adult Video News awards. If you're interested, the list of nominees can be found at the AVN official site. Personally, I think any woman that is willing to have sex on camera is deserving of an award, but unfortunately, there can only be one winner in each category. I haven't seen the odds yet, but I like Sasha Grey in "Babysitters" for Best Oral Sex Scene- Video; "Sex & Violins" to win Best Screenplay- Film; and in a mild upset, for best Transexual Release, I'm gonna go with "Ladyboys in Latex." I'm sure most of you are probably fans of "She-Male Switch Hitters," but I like to root for underdogs...with male and female parts...wearing rubber.

Enjoy your weekend, all.

You Know Who Else I Missed? My Bookie.

Can someone explain to me why Houston is only a 5 point favorite at the Lakers tonight? The Lakers are a mess while they wait to see what they can get for Kobe. Lamar Odom is still out while he recovers from shoulder surgery. The second scoring option for the Lakers is probably Derek Fisher. How is the crowd going to respond to the Kobe situation? Among the few people that go to Staples for the game rather than to be seen, there will be anti-Kobe and anti-management contingencies. Either way, that's a bad vibe.

If this were a 1st round playoff game, I'd be concerned about TMac handling his business. But in the regular season, he and Yao should dominate.

Someone talk me out of this bet. What am I missing?

Hey, I Never Said I Was Alfred Einstein

After the horrendous picks I made two weeks ago, I considered discontinuing this feature of the blog. But then I realized a few things. First, I doubt anyone gives my picks any credibility to begin with. Second, it's unlikely that it's my selections that are the biggest draw to these posts. And lastly, Peter King and Chris Mortensen get things wrong on a weekly basis but that never deters them from publishing their columns. So with that, I proudly present my college picks for the week.

Boston College -13.5 at Notre Dame
Notre Dame finally has a win, but their offense still stinks. Boston College will not oblige the Irish with seven turnovers like UCLA did last week. If the Eagles have their 3rd string QB in the game, it will only be because they are up 50 points. This has "bet the house" written all over it; and if I had any more houses to bet away, I probably would.

Washington State +19 at Oregon
With the way things are going in college football this season, I'm not going to try to overthink things. Anytime there's a big underdog, I'm taking the points, unless that underdog happens to have an angry leprechaun as their mascot. So while I don't really have a compelling reason to believe that the Cougars can compete in Autzen Stadium (tho Alex Brink's 17/5 TD to Int ratio ain't too shabby), I wouldn't have been able to give a scenario in which Stanford could beat 'SC either. The Pac-10's leading receiver, Brandon Gibson, is doubtful for the game. Given the recent exhumation in the news, perhaps Wazzu can rally around their fallen comrade and "beat one spread for the Gibber." It doesn't quite have the same ring to it, but I'll take it.

Missouri +12 at Oklahoma
Missouri's offense can really light up the scoreboard. Granted they haven't played a defense as good as Oklahoma's yet, but nevertheless, Chase Daniel and co. have yet to be held under 38 points in a game. They are fourth nationally in total offense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma's offense has slowed down considerably since the Big 12 season began. After two games, they are only +4 in net points in conference play. Mizzou should be able to stay within striking distance the entire game, putting themselves in a position to pull off yet another upset in what has already been a wildly unpredictable year.

Wyoming -3.5 vs New Mexico
This does have some of the appearances of a trap game. This game is sandwiched between Wyoming's victory over TCU and a trip to Air Force. But ultimately, Wyoming's home field advanage should be worth enough points for the conference leader to cover the spread.

Washington +11.5 at ASU
The Huskies have lost three in a row, but they were in the game at the start of the 4th quarter in each one of them. ASU may also find themselves guilty of looking ahead to their next two games which are against Cal and Oregon. I think the Sun Devils will still be undefeated when this game is over, but it's going to be a bigger struggle than they're expecting.

Vanderbilt +7 vs Georgia
Last season, Georgia played Tennessee and Vanderbilt back to back, only both games were at home. Georgia lost to Tennessee 51-33 and then followed that up with a 24-22 loss to Vanderbilt. Last week, Georgia lost to Tennessee by three touchdowns. I'll bet on history to repeat itself.

(YTD: 18-15)

This Column Is Not Approved by Brian Cook

As I wander through life, I've come to realize that there are a few vices (quite a few actually) that will always have a hold on me no matter how much I'd like to pretend otherwise. Whether it's a double deck game of 21, a 20 year-old tawny port, or a 19 year-old, redheaded stripper, I know that ultimately, resistance is futile. Also making the list is my affinity for betting on the road team in college football, even though it's probably the one sport where home field advantage has the greatest significance. This week, I'm totally succumbing to my weaknesses and taking all road teams. But I don't have any trips planned for Vegas or the Spearmint Rhino this weekend, so at least I've got that going for me.

West Virginia -7 at South Florida
South Florida is a great story, a trendy sleeper pick, and Jim Leavitt is a helluva coach. Unfortunately for the Bulls, all the coaching and preparation in the world doesn't mean much if the opposition is faster than you, and West Virginia has a wealth of team speed. I learned that the hard way last week when I took ECU. I won't make the same mistake twice. I'll make an entirely different mistake instead.

Alabama +2 at Florida State
The way I see it, there's no way Nick Saban loses this game. He's ticked about the loss to Georgia, he's ticked that there's a picture of his niece (reportedly) circulating on the net, and he's ticked that Mike Patrick cares more about Britney Spears' self-destruction than his own rebuilding efforts. My guess is that he hasn't left his office yet this week preparing for this game. Much like Saban's niece, this game might not be pretty, but it will do its part to enhance Saban's image as an arrogant, controlling, bombastic coach who has to impress his will on others at all costs. That might be bad for humanity, but it's great for gamblers.

UCLA +2 at Oregon State, Under 54.5
As Bruins Nation has already detailed extensively, Mike Riley is the perfect coach for UCLA defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker to scheme against. He runs a straightforward, pro-style offense with an immobile quarterback. Until Sean Canfield gets more accurate in the passing game, Yvenson Bernard will be the team's only weapon. The Bruins showed last week versus Washington that their defense does fine when there's only one player to key on. It won't be an impressive victory- because, well, it's Karl Dorrell afterall- but a victory nonetheless.

Oklahoma -23 at Colorado and USC -21 at Washington
Same story on both of these games. OU and Southern Cal are absolutely dominating teams, and until someone shows that they can slow them down, I'm not thinking about betting against them. By the way, I know it's early, but right now a final four of USC, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and the Florida/LSU winner sure does look appealing. I can't wait for those playoffs to start. Oh wait...

YTD: 16-11

(Oh, and to decipher the headline, check out the latest blogger interview that is part of the great series Zach has featured in The Big Picture.)

Spread Em Where I Can See Em

There aren't many compelling games on the college football schedule this weekend. If you're in need of earning some points with your significant other, this Saturday is an ideal time to sacrifice some football viewing for the greater good. On the other hand, there's a very easy remedy that makes any game more exciting- gamble on it! This week's picks:

Michigan State -11.5 at Notre Dame
The next touchdown that Notre Dame's offense scores this season will be their first. Last week, I made the mistake of thinking Notre Dame was at least as good as Troy. That won't happen again. The Spartans get to exorcise some demons from their 4th qtr collapse in last season's matchup.

Washington +6.5 at UCLA
While both teams are coming off of losses, the defeats had two very different feels to them. Washington hung tough with a tradition-rich school, Ohio State, and established that they could play with the big boys. Optimism for the Jake Locker era should be very high in Seattle. Meanwhile, UCLA was humiliated against a mediocre Utah team and flat-out gave up in the second half. If the Bruins face any adversity against Washington- and they will- there's no reason to believe the team will respond well. Add to the equation that UCLA comes into the game with a ton of injuries at key positions, and forget about covering the spread- it's hard to imagine UCLA even winning the game.

Cal -14 vs Arizona
Lost amongst all of the criticism directed towards Lloyd Carr, Charlie Weis, and Karl Dorrell is the fact that the seat is getting awfully hot for Mike Stoops. He was brought in to turnaround the program, but instead they're just spinning their wheels. Since beating UCLA 52-14 in 2005 in what was thought to be a watershed victory for Arizona, the Wildcats have only 7 wins against 10 losses. It can't help that ASU is looking pretty potent on offense this year and might actually become Pac-10 contenders in the near future. Things are just going to get hotter for Stoops this weekend as Cal's firepower will just be too much to handle.

East Carolina +25 at West Virginia
Nobody stops West Virginia's rushing attack, but ECU has done a good job of at least slowing them down in the past. That should be enough to stay within 3 tds and figgie.

Oregon -17.5 at Stanford
Oregon should rush for 300 yards in this game. It's just a shame this isn't at Autzen stadium, because it would be quite a joy to have Oregon cheerleader shots after every TD the Ducks are going to score.

Utah State -3 vs San Jose State
This game might determine who is the worst Div I-A team west of the Mississippi. San Jose State must really miss James Jones as they've been outscored 116-17 through three games. Utah State isn't much better, losing their three games by a combined score of 109-37. This is San Jose State's fourth consecutive game on the road; although having visited San Jose a few times, I can't say that I blame the team for wanting to leave the armpit of the peninsula as often as possible...even for Logan, Utah.

Michigan +3 vs Penn State
Every factor is pointing in Penn State's favor, except one. Each Thursday, during halftime of the ESPN game, Lou Holtz gives a "pep talk" to a team playing that weekend. I have to admit, as hokie as they are, I actually enjoy them, Sylvester the Cat delivery and all. Unfortunately, they haven't been too effective for the team involved. First, it was a pep talk for Michigan as they went on to face Oregon. Oops. Then, it was a pep talk for Nebraska as they prepared for USC. Uh oh. This week, he's in Penn State's locker room:




Poor, Nittany Lions. They won't know what hit them.

(YTD: 12-8)

Gambling: It's Not Just For Kids Anymore

Sorry for the lack of updates this week. The last few days have been a bit rough for me and I just haven't had the energy for any updates. Hopefully I can turn it around next week. What better way to start some momentum than with a little (hypothetical) gambling? Here are some picks for this weekend, which you should summarily dismiss:

USC -10 at Nebraska
USC is coming off of a bye week. One in which I'm sure Pete Carroll told his players that people are doubting them after their lackluster performance versus Idaho. I'm sure he also mentioned that LSU is nipping at their heels in the polls. This is a statement game for the Trojans, and Sam Keller, Bill Callahan and Marlon Lucky will be powerless to stop them. This one could be ugly.

Florida -8 vs Tennessee
Maybe I'm oversimplifying things on this one, but...if Cal and Florida were to play on a neutral field, I would have to think that Florida would be favored by at least six points. Given what Cal did to Tennessee earlier this year, I think Florida should be able to make this a two touchdown game.


Notre Dame +9.5 at Michigan
Notre Dame is awful, no doubt about it. Historically awful, even. They have negative rushing yards on the season, and have resorted to starting a true freshman quarterback. So why am I picking them? Because at this point, Michigan shouldn't be favored by 9.5 over anyone. Just imagine that Michigan is playing someone like Troy, or Army, or Middle Tennessee State instead of ND, and it should be easier to rationalize going with the underdog.

Fresno State at Oregon UNDER 64
Oregon will do their part to put up points, but going from losing a triple overtime game in College Station and then traveling to Autzen Stadium is just going to be too much for the Bulldogs.

UCLA at Utah OVER 44.5
UCLA's defense hasn't played a complete game yet, having lapses in the first half against Stanford and the second half against BYU. It's unlikely that they'll be interested enough against the Utes to put it all together this week either. That should suffice to give Utah around 17 points, which combined with UCLA's 30 will be enough to cover the over.

Colorado +4.5 vs Florida State
While ND/Michigan deservedly gets a lot of publicity, this is Hot Seat Bowl II. Dan Hawkins really needs a signature win to show that his hiring wasn't a mistake. Beating FSU might not be as impressive as it would have been a few years ago, but the name recognition alone would be enough to buy Hawkins some more time in his rebuilding process.

Enjoy your weekend. Good luck to all*.

*unless you're betting opposite my picks, in which case, screw you, man.

(YTD: 9-5)

Feeding My Gambling Addiction

Sorry this post didn't come earlier. The AC adaper on my laptop gave out today, and it was a little harder to find a matching replacement than I would have expected. Honestly Dell, is it too much to ask that just one of my computer's components last longer than a year before crapping out?

Anyway, I'm two bets into the football season, and I'm doing no worse than a flip of a coin. That alone is enough encouragement for me to keep on making uneducated picks. Let's see if I can mix in a home team somewhere.

Tennessee +6 at Cal

Cal may want revenge over last season's humiliating loss, but the reality is that Tennessee's defensive line will still be dominant and should cause Nate Longshore all kinds of problems. Erik Ainge had a breakout year in 2006, completing two-thirds of his passes, and as long as the pinky isn't an issue, he shouldn't have a problem against a Cal secondary that lost Daymeion Hughes to the draft. One thing going in Cal's factor is crowd noise. While Tennessee's fans usually travel well, they should all be in a complete state of shock after spending a day in Berkeley. I'm still having trouble imagining that scene. I've been racking my brain trying to come up with a parallel circumstance, but nothing matches the idea of this guy bumping into this guy.
Tennessee 28, Cal 27

Virginia Tech -28 vs East Carolina

Va Tech may struggle on offense a little bit early in the passing game, as it would be reasonable to expect their emotions to cause some erratic play. But the Hokies should be able to rely on Brandon Ore all game long (similar to the way OSU dominated with Yvenson Bernard Thursday). ECU head coach Skip Holtz hasn't announced who the starting QB will be, but whoever it is, he will be making his first collegiate start. Va Tech is not the team you want to be facing for your first time. That defense isn't the type of unit to be gentle in breaking a QB's cherry. No, it's going to hurt, and hurt a lot...and there's probably going to be some blood spilled when everything's over and done with.
Virginia Tech 32, East Carolina 0

Georgia Tech +2 at Notre Dame
Ok, I can't really make an educated guess on this since both teams are likely going to rotate two QBs, none of whom have started a game before. So instead, I'm just making this call as part of my vision that Notre Dame will start the season 0-8, losing to Ga Tech, Penn St, Michigan, Mich St, Purdue, UCLA, Boston College, and Navy before finally beating Air Force in November. It's a longshot, but a guy can dream, can't he?
Georgia Tech 23, Notre Dame 20

Wisconsin -14 vs Washington State
Washington State opened last season on the road to a powerhouse team (Auburn) and was demolished 40-14. This game has a similar feel. Tyler Donovan doesn't have much gametime experience at QB, but his only job will be to handle exchanges- first between he and the center, and then between he and PJ Hill. After that, he can just watch Hill run..and run..and run. Between this game, Cal v Tenn, and Arizona at BYU, the Pac-10 may have a lot of questions to answer about the true strength of their conference.
Wisconsin 45, Washington State 19

Georgia -6 vs Oklahoma State
Boone Pickens may have given the athletic fund $165 million to play with, but that doesn't mean they can suddenly buy the best talent in the country- not while USC is still in the trade. Yes, the Cowboys are getting better and they have a good offense; and it's also true that Georgia's offensive line is very, very young. But betting against Mark Richt in a home opener is a good way to lose money. (Is that really all I have to go on for this pick? Hmmm...how about these girls in Georgia gear? They're inspiring.)
Georgia 30, Oklahoma State 23

Stanford +17 vs UCLA
UCLA's defense should dominate this game. There's really no reason why this game should be close at all, unless Jim Harbaugh sneaks into a Cardinal jersey in the 4th quarter. But the last two trips to Palo Alto have not gone that well for the Bruins. In 2003, they lost at Stanford, 21-14 and summarily went on a season-ending five game losing streak. In 2005, an undefeated Bruins team narrowly escaped defeat, pulling off a miraculous 30-27 win. Unfortunately, the 8-0 Bruins then met an embarrasing defeat at the hands of Arizona, 52-14. The lesson in all of this is that unless you're a Stanford student and required to do so by the administration, there is no good reason to step foot on the Stanford campus. Ever.
UCLA 17, Stanford 16.

Season to date: 1-1.

(Update: 3:47 am. Just have to say that I've got that "little kid on Christmas Eve" feeling. I'm too excited to get any sleep. Kickoff can't come soon enough. Yes, I have problems. No, I still don't want any help.)

Bettors Are Liking The Taste of Les Miles Kool-Aid

The college football season commences today, which means we get treated to Lee Corso, Beano Cook, cheerleaders, and gambling. Lots and lots of gambling.

Tonight, LSU begins their quest for a national championship with a visit to Starkville, Mississippi to take on the Bulldogs. Last year in Baton Rouge, the Tigers beat MSU, 48-17, which while a convincing victory, actually wasn't enough to cover the 35 point spread. This year, the spread opened at 16.5 points, and gamblers have jumped all over that number and have pushed the line up to 20 points. That's a huge move in a week, so I'm looking at a possible contrarian play and taking the points. Problem is, there isn't really much to go on to support that bet. Here are the results in the series since Sylvester Croom took over in 2004:

2006: LSU 48, MSU 17
2005: LSU 37, MSU 7
2004: LSU 51, MSU 0

Ouch. Granted, two of those three games were on the road, and the Tigers did lose JaMarcus Russell, Dwayne Bowe, LaRon Landry, and Craig Davis, but there is still quite a bit of talent left for LSU. So while I want to take the points, I just can't do it. But I'd love to hear any arguments for MSU that could convince me otherwise. Until then, I'm going with:

LSU -20 at Mississippi State. (Random guess at a score, LSU 45, MSU 10)

Another intriguing game tonight is Utah at Oregon State. I like Yvenson Bernard, but I think the Beavers will struggle early in the season until they figure out who their quarterback is (going w/ a tandem today) and get some clarity on if and when Sammie Stroughter will return to the field. Utah will be running an option/spread offense with Brian Johnson returning at QB after missing all of 2006 with a knee injury. I think this game should be low scoring by Pac-10/Mtn West standards, so I'll take the points.

Utah +6.5 at Oregon State. (OSU 27, Utah 21)

Disclaimer: If anyone happened to be a reader over the last two years, you may know that my fatal flaw is that I take the road team way too much in college football. It was my undoing last year, resulting in me eventually taking a hiatus from gambling. That was a sad time. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like I learned from that experience. I did at least make sure to stock the fridge full of beer so I can drown my sorrows.

Good luck. Oh, and if anyone has any sportsbooks that they recommend, feel free to leave a message in the comments or send me an email. I promise not to forward it to the Feds.