Final Forecast

Before I make my picks for today, has anyone else noticed that the website for the company that covers the Final Four (sportsline.com) has the worst analysis of the games themselves? Dennis Dodd and Michael Freeman have written a series of amateur articles that really add no value leading up to the game itself. On the flip-side, espn.com, while usually mocked by bloggers such as myself, has been extraordinary in their coverage, breaking down the game from every angle, as well as giving the games a historical perspective as well as projecting forward into the nba draft. Heck, even Bill Simmons' blog has been a pretty good read. (It's amazing how much better his writing has become since he stopped resenting being "just" a blogger and began to embrace his role.) I just thought I'd give some credit where it was due.

As for my picks, I have personal interests clouding my view. Whenever that happens, I retreat back to my comfort zone- gambling. (Note: I'm not really that great of a sports' bettor, but at least it's comfortable.) Assuming I had access to a sportsbook (but really Feds, there's no need to investigate that), here's where my money would lie:

Ohio State +1 vs Georgetown.
Neither of these teams have looked dominant on their way to the Final Four, as both have had to rally from 2nd half deficits in their last two games. This game is being billed as Oden vs Hibbert, but I think the backcourt is where this game will be decided; and that's where the Buckeyes have the edge. While Hibbert and Oden neutralize each other, Mike Conley Jr, Ron Lewis and Daequan Cook will be the difference makers in this one.
Ohio State 70, Georgetown 62

Florida -3 vs UCLA
If Ben Howland insists on double-teaming Joakim Noah everytime he touches the ball, this game will be over by halftime. Noah is a pass-first forward who is taller than anyone who will double him. When UCLA runs a second defender at him, the game becomes too easy for the Gators. If UCLA plays him straight up, then the game just comes down to which way the whistle blows, as Lorenzo Mata, Alfred Aboya, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have all had troubles with fouls against big men. If UCLA plays the perfect game, they can beat Florida, but that's asking a lot for a team that's travelled across country to play what amounts to a Florida home game.
Florida 73, UCLA 64

You knew I couldn't actually pick the Bruins, right? While I'm not the most superstitious person on the planet, I'm not completely devoid of it either.

One thing is certain- win or lose- I'll be drinking heavily tonight. It's just a question of whether it's in celebration or drowning sorrows. Cheers.

The Nightcap

So the night after I write about how Georgetown and Kansas are two of my favorites to go to the Final Four, the Hoyas get crushed by Syracuse and the Jayhawks barely hold off Oklahoma. At first, it might seem that these results indicate that I don't have a clue as to what I'm talking about. I could definitely see how someone might come to that conclusion. However, I prefer to think of it as an indicator of my popularity amongst college athletes, as clearly these teams were reading the postings in the Lounge and let the praise get to their heads.

Tonight on ESPN, Fran Fraschilla said that this Kansas team is this year's version of the 2005-06 Florida team, which is exactly what I wrote yesterday. Obviously, I'm not accusing Mr. Fraschilla of stealing my ideas, since I'm fairly certain that he doesn't know how to operate the Google and the Ebays. Instead, I must just accept that if the former coach had the same idea, then it must have been a blatantly obvious concept...and most likely an errant one.

The Patriot League's leading scorer and conference player of the year is a guard out of Holy Cross named Keith Simmons. Hmmm....Holy Cross, Simmons, and basketball? Sounds an awful lot like Sports Guy material. From Keith Simmons' bio, I'm going to assume that there's no relation, however if Bill Simmons' karma is to stay true to form, then I expect Keith Simmons to play lights out in the opening round of the Patriot League tournament only to then rest on his laurels and mail it in for the remainder of their games. Think I'm just being bitter? Well, you're probably right. But answer me this: how has Bobby Simmons' NBA career gone since Sports Guy adopted him as family?

Remember when Bruce Pearl showed up shirtless and covered in orange body paint to a Lady Vols game? Well Tuesday, the mens' team hosts Florida, and it's now Pat Summitt's turn to lend her support to the squad. She hasn't revealed exactly what she will do at the game, however the early indication is that she will wear a cheerleader's uniform. While my initial reaction to the thought of Summitt in a skirt was one of horror, I've since realized that such costuming could provide the setting for one of the most memorable moments in college basketball history. What if Joakim Noah goes flying into the baseline like he did in the Kentucky game, only this time he's met by Pat Summitt shaking her pom-poms in his face? Noah then does what his instincts tell him to do when he sees a cheerleader and takes a swing at her- only instead of recoiling in fear, Summitt fights back. Suddenly, you've got a brawl erupting between a woman that looks like a man and a man that looks like a woman. It would be the highlight of the season. I'm setting both of my tivos to record the game just in case one shorts out from an overload of awesome.

I Feel a Case of the Madness Coming On

These last few weeks of the regular season always receive extra attention, as it's generally perceived that this is the time that teams start coming together and taking their games to the next level in anticipation of the big dance. However last year, Florida lost three games in a row in late February (at Arkansas, vs Tennessee, at Alabama) before catching fire and winning 11 in a row en route the championship. So maybe I shouldn't too much stock in the last few weeks. Still, I'm sure most coaches would prefer that their teams were peaking around this time. With that said, here are three teams on the rise and three teams that picked a bad time to struggle as March Madness approaches:

Gellin'

Kansas
All season long, any discussion of the elite teams has always focused on five schools- Florida, Ohio State, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and UCLA. In that regard, Kansas at #6 has been flying under the radar. Since losing to Texas A&M at the beginning of the month, Kansas is 6-0 and has won their games by a combined score of 516-343 (average margin of victory: 28.8 points). The Jayhawks are in my opinion the best offensive team in the country, having broken the 90 point mark six times this season and boasting five players who average scoring in double figures. Kansas has one road game left at Oklahoma before hosting Texas in the season finale. Wins there combined with a good showing in the tournament, and Kansas might be able to steal a #1 seed.

Georgetown
Much like last year, I can already tell that I'm going to advance the Hoyas too far in my bracket and get burned. Georgetown has won eleven Big East games in a row, most of them in convincing fashion. I love watching John Thompson's team play, with their athletic version of the Princeton offense combined with a very aggressive defense. When they're playing well, they can beat any team in the country; and they're playing exceptional basketball right now. The brackets aren't even out, and I'm talking myself into putting them into the Final Four (beating Ohio State to advance in a great matchup of Oden vs Hibbert).

UCLA
At the beginning of the month, I would have projected UCLA as a sweet 16 team, but not necessarily Final Four. However the last two months, the Bruins have elevated their game on the offensive end and are a legitimate threat to cut down the nets in Atlanta. The biggest difference between this team now and a few weeks ago has been their inclusion of the big men into the offensive gameplan. Lorenzo Mata and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have both become viable threats to the point that Arron Afflalo now sets interior picks to free up the post players for an entry pass. Add into the mix that Josh Shipp has started attacking the rim again, and you've got a team that is suddenly very difficult to defend. The only downside for the Bruins is that UCLA has been a notoriously slow starter this year and they do still go through stretches when they're stagnant on the offensive end. I'm sure those will be areas of emphasis in the last remaining games and the Pac-10 tournament.

Slippin'

Wisconsin
The Badgers have lost two in a row and have been held to 55 and 48 points in those two games. The good news is that this is a team full of veteran players and they shouldn't let these two games affect them too much. The bad news is that they've likely lost Brian Butch for the rest of the year as the result of a gruesome dislocated elbow (I'll post the clip soon), and Alando Tucker is 11 for his last 30 from the field. As an aside, I'd like to relay something a commenter at Sportsline.com pointed out. Sunday, in what was a brutal piece even by his own low standards, Gregg Doyel wrote about the Badgers,
"The Badgers weren't good enough to win the national title -- period -- and that was before cryin' Brian Butch left Sunday's game with an elbow injury that might end his third consecutive disappointment of a season. The Badgers can make do without Butch's soft play and yucky body."

Yucky? Really? Anyway that directly contradicts what Doyel wrote last December in a column about players that had been surprisingly good:

"Brian Butch, Wisconsin: He's no project anymore. He's a player."

So how exactly is this a third consecutive disappointing season exactly? And mocking a college junior for crying after a brutal injury was absolutely classless.

North Carolina
The Tar Heels are young, so some ups and downs are to be expected. But a lot of the other top teams are young as well. Kansas' five top scorers are three sophomores and two freshmen. Ohio State is led by freshmen Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr. UCLA had no seniors at senior day. At any rate, losing three of seven games is reason for concern. Here are a few postgame quotes after North Carolina lost to Maryland Sunday night:

"This is very frustrating," North Carolina center Tyler Hansbrough said. "We can't crumble whenever the game gets tight. We have to be tough."

"We lacked focus. We didn't convert the way we should down the stretch," forward Reyshawn Terry said. "We had another breakdown. We keep hitting the same wall. It's making me a little nervous, honestly."

Obviously, these are not the words of a confident team, and confidence is a key element at this point in the season.

Florida
On the other side of the confidence spectrum is the Florida Gators who appear to be overconfident right now. Either that or they're just bored with the regular season and are waiting for the NCAA tournament to begin. But while that mentality might work in pro basketball (example: any team that's had Shaq on it), it's very dangerous in the college game. Just ask last year's UConn team. Florida has lost two of their last three games, and I anticipate that they won't win the SEC tournament. However, they'll still get a high seed in the NCAA tournament, and at that point, it will be up to them to "flip the switch" if they want to repeat as champions. Florida still has the best starting five in America, so I'm not counting them out by any means; but if I had to make a prediction, I see this them getting upset in the elite 8.

For what it's worth, here are my current power rankings:

1. UCLA - Afflalo playing like a champion before leaving for the NBA
2. Kansas - Looking more and more like this year's version of Florida
3. Ohio State - It feels like they've underachieved, yet they'll be ranked #1 in this week's polls. Not too shabby.
4. Florida - Taking their abilities for granted right now.
5. North Carolina - Nothing will surprise me with this team in the tournament. They could lose in the first round as a #2 seed or they could win it all.
6. Texas A&M - Big statement game at Texas this Wednesday.
7. Georgetown - Hibbert could use the tournament to become a lottery pick.
8. Memphis - Like Nevada, it's hard to evaluate this team given the competition in their conference.
9. Wisconsin - Have shot 35% their last two games. It's a bad time to go cold.
10.Texas - Every #1 seed should be scared to death of facing the Longhorns early.